Legislative WAR (“Wins-above-Replacement”) ratings are similar to the types of estimates used in sabermetrics to calculate the value of a baseball player compared to some generic player a team could recruit to replace them. In the context of politics, then, I look at how an elected officeholder performed in a general election and compare them to how we would estimate some generic replacement to perform.

In calculating these WAR estimates, I examine factors such as whether a politician faced a challenger, district demographics, previous election outcomes, candidate factors such as race or sex, and more. Positive WAR estimates mean that the politician over-performed their expected vote-share in an election (so a WAR of, say, 5.0, means that the politician earned 5.0 percentage points more in their general election than we would expect some generic replacement to perform), while negative values reflect an under-performing politician based upon generic expectations of some replacement. 

Alabama House of Representatives

Democratic Under-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Givan, Juandalyn	60	89.4	98.7	-9.3
Travis, Curtis	72	82.0	87.8	-5.8
McClammy, Patrice	76	90.7	96.1	-5.4
Jackson, Thomas	68	51.5	55.4	-3.9
Tillman, Ontario	56	90.7	93.4	-2.7
Lawrence, Kelvin	69	55.2	57.4	-2.2
Hollis, Rolanda	58	98.6	100.0	-1.4
Morris, TaShina	77	98.1	99.0	-0.9
Moore, Mary	59	99.2	100.0	-0.8
Boyd, Barbara	32	55.7	56.4	-0.7

Democratic Over-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Lands, Marilyn	10	62.4	44.7	17.7
Ensler, Phillip	74	60.1	50.2	9.9
Gray, Jeremy	83	95.7	86.1	9.6
Datcher, Kelvin	83	84.1	74.9	9.2
McCampbell, Artis	71	97.9	88.7	9.2
Warren, Pebblin	82	71.1	62.4	8.7
Sellers, Patrick	57	64.9	57.5	7.4
Forte, Berry	84	96.4	89.6	6.8
Bracy, Napoleon	98	95.8	89.2	6.6
Rafferty, Neil	54	98.9	93.3	5.6
Drummond, Barbara	103	96.5	93.4	3.1
Hall, Laura	19	96.4	93.6	2.8
Hassell, Kenyatte	78	97.8	95.3	2.5
Clarke, Adline	97	97.0	94.9	2.1
Jones, Sam	99	95.9	94.0	1.9
Chestnut, Prince	67	98.5	96.8	1.7
Daniels, Anthony	53	97.4	97.0	0.4
England, Christopher	70	97.0	96.8	0.2
Hendrix, Travis	55	General Election Canceled

Republican Under-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Rehm, Rick	85	54.0	65.1	-11.1
Harrison, Ben	2	80.3	88.7	-8.4
Rigsby, Phillip	25	57.9	64.3	-6.4
Stadthagen, Scott	9	91.8	97.3	-5.5
Shirey, Mark	100	85.2	90.4	-5.2
Shaw, Mike	47	64.0	69.2	-5.2
Carns, Jim	48	84.7	89.1	-4.4
Fidler, Jennifer	94	88.4	92.8	-4.4
Dubose, Susan	45	85.6	89.3	-3.7
Gidley, Mark	29	93.9	97.4	-3.5
Underwood, Kerry	3	65.3	68.8	-3.5
Lomax, James	20	96.5	99.6	-3.1
Brown, Chip	105	90.2	93.2	-3.0
Kirkland, Mike	23	97.1	100.0	-2.9
Whitt, Andy	6	80.1	82.6	-2.5
Smith, Ivan	42	92.8	95.3	-2.5
Kiel, Jamie	18	94.9	97.1	-2.2
Givens, Donna	64	90.3	92.3	-2.0
Hulsey, Leigh	15	63.6	65.4	-1.8
Lovvorn, Joe	79	81.2	82.9	-1.7
Treadaway, Allen	51	98.6	99.7	-1.1
Shaver, Ginny	39	99.0	100.0	-1.0
Stubbs, Troy	31	98.8	99.6	-0.8
Ledbetter, Nathaniel	24	99.2	100.0	-0.8
Sorrells, Jeff	87	99.2	100.0	-0.8
Woods, Matt	13	94.3	95.1	-0.8
Standridge, David	34	99.3	100.0	-0.7
Wadsworth, Tim	14	99.3	100.0	-0.7
Lipscomb, B. Craig	30	99.3	100.0	-0.7
Shedd, Randall	11	99.3	100.0	-0.7
Estes, Tracy	17	99.4	100.0	-0.6
Hill, Jim	50	98.5	98.8	-0.3
Starnes, Jerry	88	86.2	86.4	-0.2
Bolton, Ron	61	89.0	89.2	-0.2
Wilcox, Margie	104	81.3	81.4	-0.1

Republican Over-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Paschal, Kenneth	73	96.8	85.4	11.4
Brinyark, Bryan	16	83.4	72.9	10.5
Ellis, Corley	41	75.0	64.7	10.3
Butler, Mack	28	95.8	87.4	8.4
Yarbrough, Ernie	7	76.5	68.5	8.0
Pringle, Chris	101	97.9	91.0	6.9
Blackshear, Chris	80	97.6	90.9	6.7
Reynolds, Rex	21	95.9	89.5	6.4
Faulkner, David	46	96.8	90.4	6.4
Ingram, Reed	75	97.3	90.9	6.4
Hammett, Matthew	92	86.8	80.4	6.4
Mooney, Arnold	43	74.3	68.2	6.1
Sells, Chris	90	98.8	92.7	6.1
Paramore, Marcus	89	98.1	92.1	6.0
Wood, Debbie Hamby	38	88.0	82.4	5.6
Moore, Parker	4	97.1	91.7	5.4
Holk-Jones, Frances	95	85.1	80.1	5.0
Robertson, Chad	40	82.8	78.2	4.6
Robbins, Ben	33	72.7	69.2	3.5
Oliver, Ed	81	98.8	95.5	3.3
Harbison, Corey	12	85.3	82.0	3.3
Simpson, Matt	96	97.7	94.6	3.1
Pettus, Phillip	1	97.0	94.0	3.0
Colvin, Brock	26	88.4	85.5	2.9
Fincher, Bob	37	98.7	95.9	2.8
Clouse, Steve	93	98.2	95.6	2.6
Easterbrook, Brett	65	72.7	70.2	2.5
Crawford, Danny	5	98.0	95.6	2.4
Marques, Rhett	91	98.5	96.4	2.1
Lamb, Bill	62	73.9	71.8	2.1
Bedsole, Russell	49	97.6	95.6	2.0
Almond, Cynthia	63	66.2	64.2	2.0
Wood, Randy	36	98.2	96.4	1.8
Whorton, Ritchie	22	98.1	96.7	1.4
Baker, Alan	66	99.1	97.8	1.3
Collins, Terri	8	84.8	84.0	0.8
Hurst, Steve	35	98.7	97.9	0.8
Garrett, Danny	44	83.8	83.1	0.7
Garrett, Danny	44	83.8	83.1	0.7
Lee, Paul	86	98.5	97.8	0.7
Stringer, Shane	102	98.8	98.8	0.0
Ross, Jeana	27	General Election Canceled

Alabama Senate

Democratic Under-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Singleton, Bobby	24	82.0	89.0	-7.9
Coleman, Merika	19	86.5	90.6	-4.1
Coleman-Madison, Linda	20	98.5	100.0	-1.5
Smitherman, Rodger	18	98.8	99.3	-0.5

Democratic Over-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Beasley, Billy	28	80.7	74.4	6.3
Figures, Vivian	33	67.0	62.5	4.5
Stewart, Robert	23	53.4	50.9	2.5
Hatcher, Kirk	26	98.5	98.1	0.4

Republican Under-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Stutts, Larry	6	86.7	92.3	-5.6
Butler, Tom	2	55.5	60.7	-5.2
Sessions, David	35	85.3	89.0	-3.7
Shelnutt, Shay	17	90.9	94.1	-3.2
Roberts, Dan	15	85.5	88.2	-2.7
Givham, Sam	7	62.6	64.9	-2.3
Allen, Gerald	21	66.0	68.1	-2.1
Elliott, Chris	32	98.2	100.0	-1.8
Jones, Andrew	10	98.2	100.0	-1.8
Livingston, Steve	8	98.2	99.2	-1.0
Reed, Greg	5	99.2	100.0	-0.8
Gudger, Garlan	4	99.2	100.0	-0.8
Barfoot, Will	25	85.3	85.7	-0.4
Melson, Tim	1	97.9	97.8	-0.1

Republican Over-Performers
Name	District	Vote-Share (%)	Projected (%)	WAR
Chesteen, Donnie	29	81.4	69.1	12.3
Hovey, Jay	27	70.2	60.8	9.4
Williams, Jack	34	97.6	92.4	5.2
Price, Randy	13	98.2	93.9	4.3
Waggoner, J.T.	16	96.1	92.2	3.9
Carnley, Josh	31	98.9	95.1	3.8
Chambliss, Clyde	30	98.0	94.9	3.1
Albritton, Greg	22	98.8	97.0	1.8
Weaver, April	14	97.4	96.0	1.4
Bell, Lance	11	98.4	97.2	1.2
Kelley, Keith	12	73.6	73.4	0.2
Orr, Arthur	3	86.5	86.5	0.0
Kitchens, Wes	9	General Election Canceled

Data Use and Citation

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When citing, please use:

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