These ratings reflect the district-level performance of the presidential candidates in the 2024 general election in Alabama. “Toss-Up” races are defined as those in which Donald Trump won between 45 and 55% of the vote in a given legislative district. “Leans” races are defined as those in which either Donald Trump won between 55 and 65% or between 35 and 45% of a legislative district. “Likely” races are defined as those in which Donald Trump won between 65 and 75% or 25 and 35% of a given district. And “Safe” races are defined as those in which Donald Trump won 75% or more or 25% or less of a given legislative district.
As the 2026 election cycle approaches, a statistical forecast model will appear on this page that incorporates features such as campaign fundraising, quality of challenger, district and candidate demographics, and more.
Alabama House of Representatives Seat Ratings
| Democrats | |||
| Toss-Up | Leans Democrat | Likely Democrat | Safe Democrat |
| District 10 (Lands) | District 71 (McCambell) | District 19 (Hall) | District 52 (Datcher) |
| District 32 (Boyd) | District 72 (Travis) | District 53 (Daniels) | District 54 (Rafferty) |
| District 68 (Jackson) | District 97 (Clarke) | District 56 (Tillman) | District 55 (Hendrix) |
| District 69 (Lawrence) | District 99 (Jones) | District 57 (Sellers) | District 58 (Hollis) |
| District 83 (Gray) | District 60 (Givan) | District 59 (Moore, M.) | |
| District 84 (Forte) | District 67 (Chestnut) | District 76 (McClammy) | |
| District 98 (Bracy) | District 70 (England) | ||
| District 74 (Ensler) | |||
| District 77 (Morris) | |||
| District 78 (Hassell) | |||
| District 82 (Warren) | |||
| District 103 (Drummond) | |||
| Republicans | |||
| Toss-Up | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| District 25 (Rigsby) | District 3 (Underwood) | District 1 (Pettus) | District 2 (Harrison) |
| District 6 (Whitt) | District 4 (Moore, P.) | District 7 (Yarbrough) | |
| District 8 (Collins) | District 5 (Crawford) | District 9 (Stadthagen) | |
| District 15 (Hulsey) | District 22 (Whorton) | District 11 (Shedd) | |
| District 20 (Lomax) | District 33 (Robbins) | District 12 (Harbison) | |
| District 21 (Reynolds) | District 36 (Wood, R.) | District 13 (Woods) | |
| District 28 (Butler) | District 37 (Fincher) | District 14 (Wadsworth) | |
| District 44 (Garrett) | District 38 (Wood, D.) | District 16 (Brinyark) | |
| District 46 (Faulkner) | District 41 (Ellis) | District 17 (Estes) | |
| District 47 (Shaw) | District 43 (Mooney) | District 18 (Kiel) | |
| District 63 (Almond) | District 45 (Dubose) | District 23 (Kirkland) | |
| District 73 (Paschal) | District 48 (Carns) | District 24 (Ledbetter) | |
| District 75 (Ingram) | District 49 (Bedsole) | District 26 (Colvin) | |
| District 79 (Lovvorn) | District 61 (Bolton) | District 27 (Ross) | |
| District 85 (Rehm) | District 62 (Lamb) | District 29 (Gidley) | |
| District 101 (Pringle) | District 65 (Easterbrook) | District 30 (Lipscomb) | |
| District 104 (Wilcox) | District 80 (Blackshear) | District 31 (Stubbs) | |
| District 81 (Oliver) | District 34 (Standridge) | ||
| District 88 (Starnes) | District 35 (Hurst) | ||
| District 89 (Paramore) | District 39 (Shaver) | ||
| District 90 (Sells) | District 40 (Robertson) | ||
| District 93 (Clouse) | District 42 (Smith) | ||
| District 96 (Simpson) | District 50 (Hill) | ||
| District 100 (Shirey) | District 51 (Treadaway) | ||
| District 64 (Givens) | |||
| District 66 (Baker) | |||
| District 86 (Lee) | |||
| District 87 (Sorrells) | |||
| District 91 (Marques) | |||
| District 92 (Hammett) | |||
| District 94 (Fidler) | |||
| District 95 (Holk-Jones) | |||
| District 102 (Stringer) | |||
| District 105 (Brown) | |||
Alabama Senate Seat Ratings
| Democrats | |||
| Toss-Up | Leans Democrat | Likely Democrat | Safe Democrat |
| District 23 (Stewart) | District 24 (Singleton) | District 19 (Coleman) | District 18 (Smitherman) |
| District 28 (Beasley) | District 33 (Figures) | District 20 (Coleman-Madison) | |
| District 26 (Hatcher) | |||
| Republicans | |||
| Toss-Up | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| District 2 (Butler) | District 16 (Waggoner) | District 3 (Orr) | District 1 (Melson) |
| District 7 (Givham) | District 21 (Allen) | District 11 (Bell) | District 4 (Gudger) |
| District 25 (Barfoot) | District 12 (Kelley) | District 5 (Reed) | |
| District 27 (Hovey) | District 13 (Price) | District 6 (Stutts) | |
| District 14 (Weaver) | District 8 (Livingston) | ||
| District 15 (Roberts) | District 9 (Kitchens) | ||
| District 30 (Chambliss) | District 10 (Jones) | ||
| District 34 (Williams) | District 17 (Shelnutt) | ||
| District 35 (Sessions) | District 22 (Albritton) | ||
| District 29 (Chesteen) | |||
| District 31 (Carnley) | |||
| District 32 (Elliott) | |||
Data Use and Citation
All data, charts, and analyses on Alabama Politics by the Numbers are the intellectual property and copyright of David Hughes. They may be cited, quoted, or shared for educational or journalistic purposes with proper attribution. Republishing or reproducing the data in full without citation is prohibited.
When citing, please use:
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David A. Hughes 